Autonomous cars might be road ready in less than five years, but it will take another decade before the general public are allowed to buy them, according to Ford’s head of research, Ken Washington.

The comment adds to the growing fear that automakers will not sell autonomous vehicles to customers, instead relying on ride-sharing and shuttle services. There are rumors that Ford will use its FordPass service for ride-sharing or launch a new platform soon.

See Also: Industry split on when first commercial self-driving vehicle will be ready

Ford CEO Mark Fields said customers will be able to purchase autonomous cars by 2025, making Washington’s new estimate of 2026 to 2031 rather conservative.

“It’s really hard to guess and predict the pace of the technology,” said Washington at SAE WCX World Congress Experience. “Our current view is the adoption rates will be relatively gradual.”

Still skipping Level 3 autonomy

Ford has already confirmed it will skip Level 3 autonomy, the mid-level between full human and driverless control. That was seen by some as a decision to avoid customers taking control of the vehicle. It will instead shoot for Level 5, which would revoke all human control.

The company stepped up its investment in the self-driving industry last month with the acquisition for Argo AI for $1 billion, to be paid over five years. It looked like a major acquisition of talent from Ford, to keep up with Google, Tesla, and other tech firms.

At the event, Washington insisted that the auto-industry are not behind when it comes to autonomous tech innovation. He also said that tech firms are now looking for auto partnerships, to “bring it home.”

In less than 15 years, one quarter of all U.S. travel could be in shared, electric self-driving vehicles, according to a new study by the Boston Consulting Group.

The impact will be felt most in cities where over one million people live, as these will be the launch locations for driverless ride-sharing services. Ford CEO Mark Fields has already said the company will launch a ride-sharing platform in cities by 2021.

See Also: SoftBank wants autonomous shuttle on public roads by 2020

Initial public backlash to driverless cars will subside, according to BCG, once the economic argument becomes clear to U.S. commuters. In the study, the researchers said the everyday commuter in Chicago may be able to save $7,000 per year by moving to a self-driving, ride-sharing platform in the future.

“The automotive industry is on the brink of a major transformation, and it’ll be here faster than people realize,” Justin Rose, a BCG partner leading its digital efforts for industrial companies, said in a statement. “For millions of Americans living in large cities, the next vehicle they purchase may be the last car they ever own.”

BCG expects automakers and tech firms to revoke control and ownership of the vehicle in the future, moving instead to a more elongated profit model, ride-sharing. Instead of a one-time, large payment for the car, consumers would pay each time they use the vehicle.

Differing business models

There are different economic models for automakers to choose from. One could be a lease model where the consumer pays to use the car for a certain amount of time; an alternative could see consumers pay for every ride and change cars each time.

BCG has high expectations for the self-driving industry. It expects 4.7 million autonomous cars to replace five million conventional vehicles on the road today, and believes the new driverless vehicles to travel 1.5 trillion kilometers.

It is hard to judge the exact time self-driving cars will become the vehicle of choice for commuters. Infrastructure and regulations could hold automakers back a few years, although the U.S. government and telecommunication providers have both shown interest in expediting the deployment of autonomous vehicles. Most estimates are between 2025 – 2035.

Parking garages take up an enormous amount of space in retail zones and bring less value than a retail store, business block, or housing complex in the same area.

Sadly, in a world where almost everyone drives, they’re a necessity if a city or supermarket wants to avoid congestion and road accidents.

See Also: Taking a look at the future of next-generation transportation

It is no surprise then that AvalonBay Communities, a real-estate investment trust, is eager to see the introduction of self-driving cars.

The Virginia-based developer has already shown future plans for the two-floor underground parking garage, part of a residential complex under development in the Los Angeles Arts District, to the LA Times.

When it is finished in four years, the parking garage will still serve approximately 1,000 cars, but as people switch to ride-sharing vehicles, it will make way for shops, a gym, and a theater.

Not just AvalonBay

AvalonBay is not the only property developer eager rid the world of parking garages. Upscale shopping centre Grove has talked to Google about how to prepare for the future.

There is no definitive time when parking garages will become obsolete, but some analysts have projected 2020 to be the peak point for car ownership. After that, ride-sharing and shuttle solutions will start to rise.

Even though most automakers have not said it publicly, it sounds like self-driving cars will be for rental or ride-sharing services only, at least for the first few years. Ford’s head of research, Ken Washington, recently said customers will not be able to purchase self-driving cars until at least 2026.