Thousands of modified Chevrolet Bolt cars may hit the roads next year, as part of a major deployment by General Motors to test its self-driving system on public roads.

GM, along with ridesharing app Lyft, will test the cars and possibly pick up members of the public, similar to Uber’s self-driving program in Pennsylvania and Arizona, according to a report from Reuters.

The program will supposedly be split between Lyft and GM’s car-sharing service, Maven.

The deployment of thousands of self-driving vehicles on public roads may improve the public’s perception of the technology. It could also boost GM’s standing in the self-driving industry, where it is currently perceived as behind Google’s Waymo, Tesla, and Uber.

GM has not commented on the report, Lyft also declined to comment.

GM has made a few major moves to ensure it does not fall behind in the self-driving race, including the near $1 billion acquisition of Cruise Automation, the $500 million paid for a minority stake in Lyft, and new billion dollar research facilities.

See Also: General Motors begins self-driving tests on Michigan public roads

Even with these major investments, GM has yet to show the same levels of progress and sophistication that its self-driving rivals are capable of. It does, however, have a few dozen Chevrolet Bolt cars on San Francisco roads, which are reaching Level 3 autonomy.

GM has not been as detailed in its plans for the future as Ford and Tesla, who have both said they want to achieve Level 4 autonomy in the next few years. This major deployment of test cars could be a signal that GM wants to remove humans from the driving experience, replacing car ownership with rental and taxi services.

The market for wireless connected devices is exploding. We know this. From garage doors to refrigerators to healthcare devices to alarm systems to pet products, it’s reasonable to expect that nearly everything we purchase in the future will have a chip and a platform.  How functional, viable and useful many of these devices will actually become in our day-to-day lives, however, is still up for debate.

Debated less are the revenue opportunities associated with the connected device we use with the greatest frequency – our cars. The latest research suggests the connected car market will grow to just shy of $60 billion by 2021. GM alone already has 12 million connected cars on the road today.

See also: Are connected cars only as good as your network?

From infotainment to in-car Wi-Fi, the revenue possibilities are tantalizing and manufacturers are already seeking to capitalize. And while these services are certainly marketable to the consumer and potentially allow brands to distinguish themselves in a hotly competitive market, they are not necessarily transformational to the bottom line.

The greatest revenue opportunities for manufacturers will come from the ability to conveniently service their fleets of vehicles from afar and own the relationship with the car owner long after the new car has been driven off the lot.

100 million lines of code

Today’s personal vehicle typically has over 100 million lines of software code. By comparison, the F-22 fighter jet has just 1.7 million. As is the case with your laptop computer, updates are required quite frequently to enhance performance and security.

Today, each time an update is required, it means a trip to the dealer for the owner where hot coffee, free Wi-Fi and a usually longer than anticipated wait time awaits. If the manufacturer could instead update a connected vehicle’s internal software remotely over-the-air, the cost savings associated with warranty support and recalls would be dramatic. Certainly, the owner would appreciate a reduction in the number of annoying trips to the service station.

This all sounds great in theory, but making it practical and realistic depends on access to a reliable and cost-efficient network. For early days connected services, manufacturers are relying primarily on terrestrial networks. But for the more advanced type capabilities such as OTA updates, satellite communications needs to be in the mix.

Joel Schroeder, Vice President, Strategy & Business Development, Inmarsat

It’s true; satellite communications has never been considered mainstream. It’s often thought of as a last resort due to costs, speed challenges and size of equipment. But things have changed, and satellite will be a strong player within the 5G “network of networks” as costs have come down and hardware has been reduced to the point where they can be embedded quite easily into any number of devices, including the automobile.

Network reach is what rules

Why does satellite have such an upside in the connected car arena? Let us count the ways.

First, satellite’s broadcast capability makes it ideal for shooting out a single update to an entire fleet of vehicles at once via a single transmission. Does GM want to send one message to its 12 million connected cars or 12 million to each individual car? The efficiencies of satellite broadcast would save OEM’s millions in network usage costs.

Second, while AT&T and Verizon may claim to be everywhere in the US, they are certainly not everywhere in the world. Satellite networks, on the other hand, are. They are global in nature, have much larger footprints and can reach a vehicle anywhere. Using a satellite network will eliminate the need for OEMs to negotiate and manage tricky international roaming agreements.

Third, the advent of all these connected devices has also resulted in a much larger playground for hackers with nefarious intentions. While no network can claim to be completely impervious, the topology of a satellite network is inherently more secure as it operates as a private network that does not traverse the public Internet where there is a greater likelihood of intrusion.  With encryption technologies layered on top, satellites can offer even stronger protections for users.

Finally, once the vehicle is connected to the satellite network – and the latest componentry now allows for easy embedding into shark fin antennas and internal control units – the potential then emerges for OEM’s to introduce, upsell and cross-sell a host of services that not only deliver new revenue streams but also allow for an enhanced relationship with the vehicle owner, something they have always craved.

As the connected car market matures and education of satellite’s inherent advantages continues, expect to see satellite emerge as the preferred method of connectivity and the key component that will not only drive down costs for OEMs but truly transform the relationship between the automaker and car owner.

The author is Vice President, Strategy & Business Development for Inmarsat’s Connected Car Program of Inmarsat’s Connected Car division, which is working with automotive suppliers and manufacturers to bring satellite connective to the next generation of connected vehicles.

Autonomous cars might be road ready in less than five years, but it will take another decade before the general public are allowed to buy them, according to Ford’s head of research, Ken Washington.

The comment adds to the growing fear that automakers will not sell autonomous vehicles to customers, instead relying on ride-sharing and shuttle services. There are rumors that Ford will use its FordPass service for ride-sharing or launch a new platform soon.

See Also: Industry split on when first commercial self-driving vehicle will be ready

Ford CEO Mark Fields said customers will be able to purchase autonomous cars by 2025, making Washington’s new estimate of 2026 to 2031 rather conservative.

“It’s really hard to guess and predict the pace of the technology,” said Washington at SAE WCX World Congress Experience. “Our current view is the adoption rates will be relatively gradual.”

Still skipping Level 3 autonomy

Ford has already confirmed it will skip Level 3 autonomy, the mid-level between full human and driverless control. That was seen by some as a decision to avoid customers taking control of the vehicle. It will instead shoot for Level 5, which would revoke all human control.

The company stepped up its investment in the self-driving industry last month with the acquisition for Argo AI for $1 billion, to be paid over five years. It looked like a major acquisition of talent from Ford, to keep up with Google, Tesla, and other tech firms.

At the event, Washington insisted that the auto-industry are not behind when it comes to autonomous tech innovation. He also said that tech firms are now looking for auto partnerships, to “bring it home.”

In less than 15 years, one quarter of all U.S. travel could be in shared, electric self-driving vehicles, according to a new study by the Boston Consulting Group.

The impact will be felt most in cities where over one million people live, as these will be the launch locations for driverless ride-sharing services. Ford CEO Mark Fields has already said the company will launch a ride-sharing platform in cities by 2021.

See Also: SoftBank wants autonomous shuttle on public roads by 2020

Initial public backlash to driverless cars will subside, according to BCG, once the economic argument becomes clear to U.S. commuters. In the study, the researchers said the everyday commuter in Chicago may be able to save $7,000 per year by moving to a self-driving, ride-sharing platform in the future.

“The automotive industry is on the brink of a major transformation, and it’ll be here faster than people realize,” Justin Rose, a BCG partner leading its digital efforts for industrial companies, said in a statement. “For millions of Americans living in large cities, the next vehicle they purchase may be the last car they ever own.”

BCG expects automakers and tech firms to revoke control and ownership of the vehicle in the future, moving instead to a more elongated profit model, ride-sharing. Instead of a one-time, large payment for the car, consumers would pay each time they use the vehicle.

Differing business models

There are different economic models for automakers to choose from. One could be a lease model where the consumer pays to use the car for a certain amount of time; an alternative could see consumers pay for every ride and change cars each time.

BCG has high expectations for the self-driving industry. It expects 4.7 million autonomous cars to replace five million conventional vehicles on the road today, and believes the new driverless vehicles to travel 1.5 trillion kilometers.

It is hard to judge the exact time self-driving cars will become the vehicle of choice for commuters. Infrastructure and regulations could hold automakers back a few years, although the U.S. government and telecommunication providers have both shown interest in expediting the deployment of autonomous vehicles. Most estimates are between 2025 – 2035.

The U.K. government has invested £109 million ($136 million) into a mixture of self-driving and low carbon projects, aimed at spurring innovation and reducing the country’s footprint.

A public-private program for low carbon projects, called Advanced Propulsion Centre (APC), received the lion’s share of the investment. Seven projects, led by BMW, Ford, Jaguar Land Rover, and smaller companies, received £62 million ($77 million). The Office for Low Emissions Vehicles awarded £16 million ($20 million) to seven other low-carbon projects.

See Also: Panasonic begins work on Denver future smart city, Peña Station next

One of the projects covers the development of high-power batteries for electric vehicles, another focuses on reducing the weight of EVs to make them cheaper and more accessible.

£31 million ($39 million) went to the Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CCAV), which sent the cash to 24 projects. The CCAV is an industry-backed program and receives half of its funding from private ventures.

Hello, Manchester!

The investment will lead to the development of autonomous pods and cars that travel between Stockport train station and Manchester Airport. Other projects include road-ready driverless vehicles and industry machines that could be made autonomous, like forklifts.

“Low carbon and driverless cars are the future and as a government, we are determined through the Industrial Strategy to build on our strengths and put the UK at the forefront of this revolution,” said Business Secretary Greg Clark. “Investment in this technology is an integral part of this government’s efforts, to ensure the UK auto sector remains competitive and world-leading.”

The U.K. has been at the forefront of autonomous vehicle development in Europe. It legalized self-driving last year on public roads and Innovate UK, a government-backed investor and incubator, has spent millions on startups working on autonomous technology.

General Motors announced on Thursday a major expansion of its self-driving operations in Silicon Valley.

The automaker intends to hire 1,100 people and double the research and development space available for its self-driving subsidiary, Cruise Automation.

See Also: Automotive 2.0: The new road ahead to autonomous vehicles

GM has, in collaboration with Cruise, been testing 50 Chevrolet Bolt cars in San Francisco, Arizona, and Detroit for over a year. Rumors suggest GM will heavily expand the amount of self-driving vehicles on the road next year, to potentially number in the thousands.

“As autonomous car technology matures, our company’s talent needs will continue to increase,” said Cruise Automation’s CEO, Kyle Vogt. “Accessing the world-class talent pool that the San Francisco Bay Area offers is one of the many reasons we plan to grow our presence in the state.”

GM following Ford?

The expansion comes a few weeks after Ford, its main competitor in the U.S., announced a $1 billion investment in Argo AI, to be sent over the next five years. The investment gives Ford access to a talent-filled startup working on all sorts of autonomous technology.

General Motors has not set a clear roadmap for its self-driving program, unlike Ford, which wants to have a fully driverless vehicle on the road by 2021. Both automakers are likely to launch ride-sharing services for the self-driving cars, GM may use Lyft as the default service.

Other competitors, including Waymo and Tesla, want to see self-driving cars on the road earlier, but lack the manufacturing (Waymo) and distribution (Tesla) prowess of GM and Ford.

Apple’s secretive self-driving project has received a permit to test driverless vehicles in California, which could be our first preview of the iPhone maker’s autonomous technology.

The self-driving tech has been in development, under the codename Project Titan, for a few years. During that time, the project has supposedly moved from a hardware, software, and services package to a more software oriented project.

See Also: Detroit passes Silicon Valley as center for self-driving research

Apple has registered three Lexus RX vehicles and six drivers, which does give some credence to the reports of it focusing primarily on software. The permit does not disclose what sensors the company plans to use.

All companies registered with the California’s DMV have to file disengagement and crash reports every month, this could be our first insight into the sophistication of Apple’s tech.

Apple technically isn’t even working on a car?

Apple has still not publicly acknowledged it is working on a self-driving vehicle and declined to comment on the permit.

It said in a letter to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) that it is “investing heavily in the study of machine learning and automation, and is excited about the potential of automated systems in many areas, including transportation,” which looks like the closest we’re going to get to a confirmation until near launch.

The company will join a growing list of tech firms testing autonomous vehicles in California, including Waymo (Google’s self-driving division), Tesla, General Motors (with Cruise Automation) and Uber.

All machines eventually break down. Self-driving vehicles are no exception.

Autonomous vehicles pose two problems for the future of vehicles. The removal of the driver means there is no person providing feedback on how the vehicle performs over time. You are removing the point-person who says “something feels wrong, this needs to be checked out.” An autonomous truck could easily arrive at its destination with one fewer wheels than it left with at its origin without recognizing there is a problem.

An autonomous truck could easily arrive at its destination with one fewer wheels than it left with at its origin without recognizing there is a problem.

See also: Automotive 2.0 – the new road ahead for autonomous vehicles

Autonomous vehicles also create a second maintenance problem – the sensor systems they use can fail. An autonomous vehicle operating with a faulty sensor is an on-the-road hazard. Imagine the wheel-speed sensor that reports the vehicle has stopped when it is actually traveling at highway speeds. A human would know to disregard that faulty input because it “feels” wrong. An autonomous vehicle could respond by continuously accelerating.

With the advent of autonomous vehicles, now, more than ever, systems need to be created for advanced diagnostics. AI should not just be used to make vehicles drive autonomously, but also to allow vehicles self-diagnose future and upcoming issues.

The new AI for maintenance

The concept of predicting breakdowns is nothing new. People have been using statistics for decades to calculate mean-time-to-failure – it is how the automotive industry came up with replacing parts based on number of miles driven. However, the ‘mean-time’ means that some parts repaired will have significant useful life yet and others will break before you get around to fixing them. AI allows something to be done that was unfeasible in the past – actively monitor every vehicle while it is in use.

Established companies have been working in this place for a while now. They operate on the notion that if you have been collecting data then they can put enough experts on the problem to create a solution. SAP, IBM, and Pivotal Labs are all making plays into the space. The problem is that they require that a company has been collecting data, knew what data to take, and knew to keep it.

As the industry matures and companies collect more data and gain large historical datasets, their solutions will be powerful. But nimble startups can use speed to their advantage in this situation by rapidly deploying a solution that will give them a permanent head start on collecting the sensor data needed to train the AI systems.

One such company is Uptake. They have had phenomenal growth, breaking a $1 billion dollar valuation within a year of incorporation and being named Forbes’ 2015 Hottest Startup. They did this by collecting a dataset from scratch, first with locomotives and then with other vehicles, through this they ended up with a partnership with Caterpillar. Their future looks to be diverging away from vehicles and towards bringing predictive maintenance to other industries.

Preteckt follows Uptakes footsteps in collecting its own dataset, but it targets the vehicles that are more commonly seen on the roads. Preteckt started with 18-wheelers and has already diversified into buses, and the hardware and software architecture that has been developed is portable to smaller vehicles. Preteckt’s technology has already been deployed in an autonomous truck and could be migrated to autonomous cars in the future.

The future is not “Star Trek”

Science fiction has people asking machines to run diagnostics to see if something is wrong, or what is wrong. The concept is flawed. The machines will know before you ask and will tell you what will go wrong with them next. They will tell you how to best take care of them to ensure that they do not fail on you. This is what you can look forward to with the autonomous vehicles of the future – a peace of mind in that your vehicle will not have any on-the-road surprises for you.

But why stop at eliminating surprises. Once vehicles can know their upcoming maintenance needs and drive themselves – why won’t they just take themselves to the mechanic when your schedule says you don’t need it. Maintenance will become an “out-of-sight, out-of-mind” concept making the ownership of a vehicle that much more enjoyable.

VB Profiles Connected Cars Landscape

This article is part of our connected cars series. You can download a high-resolution version of the landscape featuring 250 companies here.

Cadillac previewed the next step in semi-autonomous technology at the New York Auto Show this week, improving its adaptive cruise control safety features.

The new Super Cruise system, which will be available in the Cadillac CT6 this fall, is able to alert the driver when they stop paying attention to the road and ensure that an accident similar to Tesla’s first autonomous fatality doesn’t happen in a Cadillac.

See Also: A quarter of all U.S. travel could be electric and driverless by 2030

Instead of packing the steering wheel with sensors to recognize when the driver has let go, Cadillac has added head tracking sensors to make sure the driver pays attention.

The ‘Driver Attention System’ will alert the driver if they look away for too long, and the system has a series of alerts that escalate the longer attention is diverted. These alerts include voice, noise alerts and haptic chair rumbles.

Ignore me and I’ll shut down

If a driver ignores all alerts, the car will turn hazard lights on and shut down. It will also alert the emergency services. Unlike other cruise control systems, the driver needs to only look back at the road to turn off the alerts, they do not need to hold the wheel.

Another addition to Cadillac’s Super Cruise is a geo-locator that ensures cruise control only works on divided, limited-access highways. It comes after the first fatal accident involving a Tesla’s Model S owner that had AutoPilot active last year. The Model S did not recognize the white van that had pulled out of an intersection and the driver was not paying attention to the road.

General Motors is one of the few major automakers that are committed to semi-autonomous tech inside of cars. Ford, its main U.S. rival, has said it will skip Level 3 autonomy, which is considered a slightly more advanced form of cruise control, to push straight for Level 5, the highest level of autonomous driving.

Parking garages take up an enormous amount of space in retail zones and bring less value than a retail store, business block, or housing complex in the same area.

Sadly, in a world where almost everyone drives, they’re a necessity if a city or supermarket wants to avoid congestion and road accidents.

See Also: Taking a look at the future of next-generation transportation

It is no surprise then that AvalonBay Communities, a real-estate investment trust, is eager to see the introduction of self-driving cars.

The Virginia-based developer has already shown future plans for the two-floor underground parking garage, part of a residential complex under development in the Los Angeles Arts District, to the LA Times.

When it is finished in four years, the parking garage will still serve approximately 1,000 cars, but as people switch to ride-sharing vehicles, it will make way for shops, a gym, and a theater.

Not just AvalonBay

AvalonBay is not the only property developer eager rid the world of parking garages. Upscale shopping centre Grove has talked to Google about how to prepare for the future.

There is no definitive time when parking garages will become obsolete, but some analysts have projected 2020 to be the peak point for car ownership. After that, ride-sharing and shuttle solutions will start to rise.

Even though most automakers have not said it publicly, it sounds like self-driving cars will be for rental or ride-sharing services only, at least for the first few years. Ford’s head of research, Ken Washington, recently said customers will not be able to purchase self-driving cars until at least 2026.