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Jeff Pu at GF Securities estimates that shipments of newly released iPhones will rise to 74 million in the second half, up about 7% from his estimate of 69 million last year, while TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo forecast that Apple would sell 75 million to 80 million new iPhones in the second half of 2018. This year’s volumes may signal stabilization after a year of uncertainty, though that’s a far cry from the double-digit growth numbers of years past.
As Bloomberg notes, the fact that suppliers are planning for production of 75 million units doesn’t mean Apple will sell that many, but suppliers are also reportedly capable of pushing output to 80 million units if demand calls for it. As always, Apple will assess demand following the launch of the new iPhones and adjust production accordingly.
Apple has also stopped publicly reporting unit sales of iPhones and other products in its quarterly earnings releases, making it more difficult for analysts and others to track those numbers over time and requiring them to calculate unit sales based on reported revenue numbers and estimated average prices.
We’re expecting this year’s new iPhones to look very similar to the current lineup, with three new models serving as successors to the iPhone XS, XS Max and XR at the same display sizes. The most obvious external difference will be the rear camera, which will be housed in a square bump and see the iPhone XS and XS Max successors bump up to three lenses from the current two while the iPhone XR successor moves from one lens to two.
For more details on what we expect with the next iPhones in terms of design and capabilities, check out our recent hands-on video with dummy units and our dedicated 2019 iPhone roundup.
